What"s The Market For HSR Chicago to New York / Washington?

What is the market for HSR assuming 200 mph average speed? That average speed would mean a five hour trip from New York to Chicago.

Looking at the quarterly city pair air fare analysis by the US. Department of Transportation a picture can be assumed. in the second quarter of 2015, the average daily number of passengers for Chicago to New York was 11,251. Unlike air travel, HSR passes through and exploits other intervening markets.
Chicago to Indianapolis the count is 186, Chicago to Detroit is 1,303, Chicago to Cleveland is 1,368, Chicago to Pittsburgh is 1,065, Chicago to Harrisburg is 234,  Chicago to Philadelphia is 2840. The total is 18,247. Add another 5,838 for Chicago to Washington for potential 24,085 daily market.

Begin by looking at Chicago to New York. In and by itself that load factor represents 11,251 daily passengers. Along the route 186 air passengers travel between Chicago and Indianapolis. Chicago Detroit is 1303.  Chicago to Cleveland is 1368.  Chicago to Pittsburgh is 1065. Chicago to Harrisburg is 234, Chicago Philadelphia is 2840. Chicago to Washington is 5838. That's a daily air fare gross of $5,512,655.00

Looking for other city pairs along Chicago to New York to Washington D.C. travel market reveals additional potential revenue. Indianapolis to Philadelphia has a number of 434 passengers. Indianapolis to New York adds 1006. Indianapolis is another 1125. That represents a total gross air fare of $684,425.00. So on and so as the chart below is followed intervening market areas exist for a High Speed Rail passenger train for Detroit, Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

The opportunity is a daily $8,549,885.00 or an estimated $3,120,708, 025.00 annual gross. Admittedly this is a ham fisted 365 day multiplier to reach the three billion dollar gross. Yes, a High Speed Railroad from Chicago to the east coast may capture a portion of the air travel. Air travel city pairs is hard data. The potential market to attract motorists is a guess. The number of persons making long distance trips from Chicago to New York is nearly impossible to establish. Average vehicle daily count numbers at points along an Interstate give only vehicle density. The number of tractor trailers and the number of automobiles can be published. Where the origin and the destination for the vehicles on the Interstate might be located cannot be identified. As the volume of motorists far exceeds the number of air travelers the potential market is vast.

New York Times Update Wreck 188, Frankford Junction, Philadelphia, PA

Today's update article misses the point that severe curvature on the Northeast Corridor and the curve at Frankford Junction, Curve 298, should not exist. Curvature must be eased. Had a 1% or less curve confronted Engineer Bostian there would not have been a derailment.

Here's the link to "The Wreck of Amtrak 188," :

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/magazine/the-wreck-of-amtrak-188.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=image&module=photo-spot-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=5?login=email

First Quarter GDP - Need for All Weather High Speed Rail

The first quarter gross domestic product will likely be negligible or negative. Why? The air system is unreliable and has ground to a halt. There is no alternative.

If we had a high speed rail - industrial complex we would not have the impact upon the economy that a a large snowstorm causes.

If the banking system is like air; then the transportation system is like blood.

What follows is an article by Julius Parod that discusses cold weather train design and operation in Europe, Japan and China.

Cold Weather Passenger Trains
January 07, 2014
Julius Parod,  Midwest High Speed Rail Association,  www.midwesthsr.org

People across the world depend on trains every day of the year. Even during blizzards or when the thermometer drops below -40 degrees Celsius, good transportation is needed to bring people together and connect economies. In fact, under extreme circumstances, when roads and runways are impassable, passenger trains can be the only viable form of transportation. Having a modern, winter-ready railroad network can make all the difference when harsh winters leave thousand of travelers stranded. Today, countries across the world are employing innovative technologies to keep their railway networks running smoothly in all weather conditions.
When it comes to cold-weather innovations in passenger trains, China leads the way. The recently constructed high-speed line, capable of running at 217 mph, traverses some of the most uninhabitable climes on the planet. The corridor, running between Harbin and Dalian in northeastern China, sees temperatures ranging from 40 to -40 degrees Celsius. To meet this challenge China commissioned 22 reports and thousands of tests to guarantee the safety of the “ice-train” – the only-high-speed train of its kind. Some of the distinct features of this line are special snow and ice removing facilities to keep the power supply and signaling systems safe. Furthermore, China has introduced specially designed train sets for this corridor capable of withstanding the extreme temperatures. The CRH5A trains are based on Alstom’s Italian Pendolino trains, which can handle temperatures below -40 degrees Celsius.
In Europe, the Pendolino trains are key to making extreme cold weather travel possible. From the Alps to the edge of the Arctic Circle, these trains have revolutionized winter travel. Today Finland runs numerous high-speed lines, capable of reaching 140 mph using these trains. Routes stretch from Helsinki to Oulu in the far north and St. Petersburg in Russia. In Sweden, other high-speed trainsets can withstand temperatures of -35 degrees Celsius on the Stockholm-Ostersund route. Conventional Swedish trains operate in even more extreme temperatures deep in the Arctic Circle, on routes such as between Narvik, Norway and Kiruna, Sweden. Throughout Scandinavia, specially designed rolling stock connect communities that would otherwise be stranded for much of the year.
To connect Moscow with St. Petersburg, Siemens modified its Velaro train design to prepare for the harsh Russian winter. The new “Sapsan” trains include extra safety functions and were built with special-grade, cold-resistant steel and plastic. They also employ new technology that keeps passengers comfortable even in the worst winter conditions. By updating their existing technology to meet cold weather demands, Siemen successfully brought high-speed trains to Russia.
To function in the winter, trains must overcome numerous difficulties. Snow often collects under the train, freezes, and then turns into blocks of ice that can weigh over one ton per carriage. Ice can destroy rail-car components and endanger the safety of riders. This is especially acute in Scandinavia where humidity and high-snowfalls exacerbate this problem.
To combat icing, railway operators have come up with numerous solutions. In Sweden, for example, moving parts are coated in rubber and plexiglass, which prevents ice-formation. In Japan, the high-speed Shinkansen trains spray water onto snowy tracks to prevent the snow from blowing up into the undercarriage and re-freezing. In all areas with extreme winter conditions, de-icing, like in the airline industry, is essential. Today, in Norway and Sweden operators are experimenting with a new method that will reduce time of the currently long de-icing process, which impairs railroad operations.
Cold weather countries also employ other methods to make their trains functional year-round. After a heavy snowfall in Finland and Norway, conventional diesel locomotives clear the tracks before EMU’s can run. In Japan, there is an elaborate system of fences and snow sheds to keep the high-speed Shinkansen trains safe from avalanches and snow drifts. Sweden uses helicopters to monitor snow conditions to prevent deadly avalanches.
Despite temperatures of nearly -40 degrees Celsius, huge snowfalls, and high winds, passenger trains manage to carry people to their destination throughout the world. From East Asia to Russia to Scandinavia, winter-specific rail technology enables conventional and high-speed trains alike to provide a necessary service.

Maybe the Country Needs an HSR - Industrial Complex

 This is what rail based passenger service is. It is partial  operation on the Northeast Corridor. Absolutely nothing is flying.

IF a modern HSR system was in place, the schedules would be likely unchanged with no cancellations.

The greatest country in the world might own incredible weapons.

It does not have a HSR - industrial complex. Maybe it should.

Reliability - Weather

The big snowstorm is moving into the northeast.

The rail based transport is operating.

Airlines are not operating.

Essentially outside the Northeast Corridor, Americans do not
have an alternative to air travel because
there is no passenger rail service with competitive transit times
that High Speed Rail HSR (110 + speed) provides.

A progress prone society would have an HSR system serving
vast portions of the country.

Persons saying the USA is the greatest country in the world
say so with prejudice and foolish pride.

The shut down of the country is a vulnerability. A shutdown due
to weather is stupid. Weather may lessen HSR capacity. But,
it does cotinue to function.





The impact upon the economy that is so unnecessary due to
weather is hard to understand why it is tolerated.

Closer Look Curve Realignment Frankford Curve 298

From east to west, leave existing right of way at about 40.006228N 75.087489W at the Adams Avenue Street underpass east of Torresdale Avenue itersection.

Some affected high value real estate in vicinity Adams Avenue and Torresdale, Avenue. 

 

Adams Avenue underpass showing high value real estate.

 

Crossing Frankford Creek

Detail of upper right corner of photo above. Facility to left lower of this detail shows a derelict, vacant, obsolete industrial structure from another era and century on Vand Dike Street.

 

Curbside on Van Dike Street looking toward the T intersection with Paul Street and the NEC cooridor

right of way in the upper left middle distance.

 

 Crossing Frankford Creek eased curve would affect an occupied and maintained  warehouse. This is a warehouse used by SEPTA. About one third of the structure has an industrial tenant.

  

Curbside view of Wheatsheaf Lane with obsolete, derelict, vacant industrial structure across from SEPTA warehouse on right. rowhouses to left across from the warehouse are on Coral Street.

 

Continued estimate relocated and eased curve location.

 

Detail of vacant warehouse on Frankford Avenue with intersection above out of frame with Buckus  Street.

 

Frankford Avenue looking towards NEC right of way. NEC substation in distant upper right hand part of photo.

 

Continuation of proposed line relocation crossing Castor Avenue and Sedgewick Avenue.

 

 

Intersection of Castor Avenue and Sedgewick Avenue from curbside looking towards underpass carrying NEC right of way. Substation for NEC is to the left. To the left is a vacant functionally obsolete industrial structure that is for sale.

The vacant industrial structure on Sedgewick Avenue  to the left with view of buildings in immediate vicinity of suggested new right of way.

 

Western end of proposed relocation of curve 298 at 40.002369N 75.104164W off Sedgewick Avenue and the intersection of L Street

 

The proposed line relocation would cross the Frankford Elevated line seen in the distance. The NEC right of way is seen in the upper left distance.

What would this curve easement accomplish? 

The elimination of a killer curve.

Correcting Frankford Junction Curve Alignment

This is about what a  curve alignment of roughly 1% would be for Frankford Junction. Not much real estate is involved. A progress prone political environment would have simply designed, acquired and built sometime in the past decades what was needed and solved this problem. This alignment would be capable of 90 mph.

Relying Upon 1864 Civil Engineering and Line Location

Here is a photo of the Amtrak derailment at the Frankford Junction curve in Philadelphia. Numbers 1, 2 and 3 identify parts of the fractured structural steel beam broken by the derailing train colliding with it as it passed. 4 identifies the crumpled remains of the first car behind the locomotive. 4 is in the center of the folded car with cranes to the left and right. 5 is the second car of the reaming six car string. The specially designed passenger car couplers did their job for the six cars as the cars did not separate. Had they had been connected with freight couplers the cars would have parted. Since about 1910 USA passenger cars have been designed for the frame to withstand 800,000 pounds of buff force. No other country has such a standard. 6 is the locomotive. Its right side headlight was damaged. 7 is the outside rail on the curve. It is higher than the inside rail opposite. That is referred to as the super elevated curve. Super elevation allows for faster speed through a curve like a race car track. The curve was rated at 50 miles per hour by the original owner and builder, the Pennsylvania Railroad. The current owner, Amtrak also has a 50 mile per hour speed restriction on the curve. The steel beam above and across the tracks at 8 suspends an electric wire above each track. A spring loaded device on the locomotive with a roller at the top contacts the wire and collects electric power to propel the electric motors driving the locomotive. The wires and steel beam supports are called catenary. I think that the locomotive grazed the catenary support enough for the first car to fully collide and fold. The locomotive separated and came to rest at 6. The firt car was pushed by the following cars to 4. As soon as the air brake line was severed from the locomotive the string of cars brakes activated explaining why the last two remained upright as the energy of the cars dissipated . Centrifugal force took the equipment to the right on a left curve. The right of way with the curve has been in that location since about 1864. Antiquated civil engineering line location was the basic cause of the accident.

Progress Prone? OR Progress Resistant?

"'Progress-prone' societies are rational, ascetic, ethical, universalist, achievement-oriented, activist, future-oriented and egalitarian. Such societies  seek a balance between group and individual interests and observe life as a positive-sum game.'

'In contrast, 'progress resistant'  societies are fatalistic, particularistic, ascriptive, passive, individualistic and familistic, past- or present-oriented, and hierarchal. Life is perceived as a zero-sum game.' ( See "A History of Credit and Power in the Western World" by S.B. MacDonald and A.L. Gastmann.)

Can Pennsylvania become 'progress-prone' state?

A 'progress-prone'  state is a state that is rational, achievement-oriented, future oriented and egalitarian. Sadly, the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania can be characterized as being 'progress resistant.'

The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania holds a unique position in the geography of the country. It sit astride the line of communication between the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast of the United States. As such, any high speed railroad that will be built will cross the Commonwealth.

The question  is how to build a high speed railroad system to fully benefit the Commonwealth as it fulfills its traditional "keystone" role.

How could a high speed railroad be built and operated given the "progress-resistant" nature of the Pennsylvania Assembly let alone the "progress-resistant " national legislature.